Paris, July 8, 2024 – The question of who will govern France looms large following the unexpected second round of legislative elections, which saw the leftist bloc emerge as the leading force but fall short of an absolute majority. What are the next steps in the wake of this election? Could the country be heading towards an institutional deadlock? Here are some insights.
1. When Should a New Government Be Appointed?
While there is no immediate requirement for Prime Minister Gabriel Attal to step down, he announced on Sunday evening, July 7, that he would tender his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron on Monday. “It is a convention for a government to resign after legislative elections,” notes Benjamin Morel, a public law lecturer at the University of Paris-Panthéon-Assas. Attal has indicated his willingness to stay at Matignon “as long as necessary” to ensure a smooth transition, especially with the upcoming Olympic Games.
There is no formal timetable for President Macron to request the current government’s resignation or to appoint a new one. Macron has stated he prefers “to wait for the new National Assembly to be structured before making necessary decisions, in line with republican tradition.”
However, Macron cannot completely ignore the new political reality. A government that lacks majority support in the National Assembly faces the risk of a no-confidence motion, which could be proposed as soon as the first session of the new National Assembly on July 18, according to Article 12 of the Constitution. With the presidential camp holding only 168 out of 577 seats, such a motion would likely lead to the immediate fall of the Attal government.
2. How Is the Prime Minister Chosen?
In theory, the President of the Republic has the authority to appoint anyone as Prime Minister. However, institutional logic dictates that the President must consider the majority of deputies, as a government that lacks their support could face a no-confidence motion. Therefore, Macron must choose a candidate who can secure the backing of a majority of deputies—or at least avoid rejection by them.
If a political group holds an absolute majority in the Assembly (at least 289 out of 577 seats), the President typically appoints a Prime Minister from that group. This holds even if the group opposes the President, as seen during the cohabitations under François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac.
Currently, no political group holds such dominance. The leading group, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), has only 182 deputies, plus an additional 13 leftist deputies, forming a relative majority of just over a third of the seats.
3. What Are the Possible Scenarios?
With no clear majority in the National Assembly, the risk of institutional deadlock is significant. Although there is no formal deadline for forming a government, no legislative or regulatory texts can be adopted without one. The coming days will likely see negotiations, possibly leading to one of the following outcomes:
A Coalition Government
Given that none of the major political blocs have a majority, discussions could lead to forming a coalition capable of rallying over 50% of deputies behind a Prime Minister and a government contract. This is common in parliamentary democracies like Germany or Italy and has been mentioned by some political leaders before the second round, envisioning a “national unity government” or a “provisional government.”
However, this scenario appears unlikely at present. Major left-wing representatives have ruled out alliances with the Macronist camp and/or the right, rejecting any “alliances of opposites” or “arrangements.” Macron’s camp has set preconditions for any discussion towards a majority and ruled out alliances with La France Insoumise (LFI), the primary leftist component with 74 deputies. Similarly, the leader of Horizons, Edouard Philippe, favors forming an agreement without the Rassemblement National (RN) or LFI. Laurent Wauquiez of Les Républicains (LR) has also dismissed any “combinations” to form an unnatural majority.
A Minority Government
A government can also be appointed and remain in power without the explicit support of an absolute majority in the Assembly. This was the case for the Macronist governments of Elisabeth Borne and Gabriel Attal between 2022 and 2024, which had only a relative majority of 246 seats (43%). The presidential camp managed to maintain these minority governments by securing majorities on a case-by-case basis for each legislative vote and frequently resorting to Article 49.3.
This scenario could theoretically allow the NFP to govern, provided at least 94 deputies not elected under the leftist banner tacitly support it. Alternatively, the presidential camp could retain power by convincing 121 right-wing or center-left deputies to let them govern. Given their results, LR and RN have minimal chances of taking over Matignon in this manner.
A minority government would be under constant threat of a no-confidence vote, potentially leading to a rapid succession of governments.
A Technical Government
If the situation remains deadlocked, appointing a “technical” government could be a way out. This would involve appointing non-partisan ministers to handle day-to-day affairs and implement consensual reforms, supported case by case by different Assembly blocs.
Italy has experienced such configurations during crises, but they have rarely been durable due to the lack of electoral legitimacy.
4. Could There Be Another Dissolution Soon?
A return to the polls to clarify the political situation is unlikely in the immediate future. According to Article 12 of the Constitution, “no new dissolution can occur within a year following these elections.” Therefore, the new National Assembly is expected to sit until at least the summer of 2025.
Written by Imane Moumen
