It is the summer of 2024, and more than 2 years after Russia invaded Ukraine, the resultant conflict shows no sign of stopping. Billions of dollars of aid from multiple countries has been collectively poured into Ukraine to aid in the defeat of Russia, but progress has been extremely slow. An outdated but nonetheless formidable Russian military has launched multiple offensives in hopes of capturing Ukrainian territory, that, while not completely successful, have ground the war down to an artillery slog that neither side can win quickly or easily. Meanwhile, nearly 15 million people in Ukraine and surrounding areas are in need of humanitarian assistance, while just under 4 million are internally displaced. Over 30,000 lives have been lost throughout the conflict thus far, and that number continues to rise each day. Western countries have repeatedly expressed sympathy and support for the Ukrainian people, but the underlying message remains the same: directly involving foreign militaries risks igniting a wider conflict. So that then begs the question, what’s next for the war in Ukraine?
The Kremlin, Russia’s government, has made it clear that they have no interest in negotiations that don’t end in Ukrainian surrender, so it seems that as long as the virtually unlimited military pockets of the Western world continue to provide aid to Ukraine, the war will continue on indefinitely. However, there are a few scenarios that could potentially change the course of the conflict significantly.
Scenario 1: U.S. Election
The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election is extremely significant with regards to the war in Ukraine. If former president Donald Trump were to win the electoral vote in November, then the pro-Ukrainian views espoused by current President Joe Biden would no longer guide military aid policy. Instead, Trump would likely resume a collaborative relationship with Russia as he did in his first term, removing current sanctions against Russia, preventing military aid from reaching Ukraine, and potentially even pressuring Ukraine to give up some territory in exchange for peace as he previously stated in private conversation. If President Biden were to win another term, the next four years would likely be more of the same, with constant pressure from both sides, but little progress on either front.
Scenario 2: Nuclear Escalation
By far the least likely scenario, nuclear escalation would be mutually assured destruction for all parties involved. So far, Russia has been slow to advance with traditional weapons, although indiscriminate attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure have caused international outcry, so some speculate that Putin may turn to nuclear warfare to brute-force a victory. The West is doing everything it can to avoid such an escalation, but if Putin or the Kremlin attempt a last-ditch maneuver to force a victory in Ukraine, the likely outcome is NATO retaliation and nuclear war.
Scenario 3: Korean Model
The Korean War Model is the most likely outcome for the war in Ukraine, and probably also the most desirable. During the Korean War, neither the United Nations and South Korea or North Korea and China could make progress, and the war was effectively a stalemate. To end the conflict, an armistice was signed on July 27, 1953, providing a formal end to hostilities and declaring a demilitarized zone (DMZ) along the 38th parallel. The war in Ukraine is trending towards a similar outcome, with neither side being able to make significant progress without risking the involvement of many more countries, so the future may hold a similar armistice.
It is also possible that neither of these three scenarios happen, and the war either continues on indefinitely or fizzles out, perhaps if either Russian or Ukrainian leadership loses power in the next few years. It is difficult to tell exactly what may happen over the next few years, and what developments may take place between Russia and Ukraine as power dynamics shift, but if anything is for certain, it is that this conflict is far from over.
Written by Saachi Kandula
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