Ukrainian forces have penetrated through the border with Russia, occupying a portion of its western Kursk Oblast, in an area estimated to be six to eight miles in depth and up to twenty miles in width.
From 5,000 to 10,000 Ukrainian troops in multiple brigades occupy this area, forcing around 76,000 Russians to evacuate. However, this figure is nominal compared to the 10 million Ukrainians affected due to the war perpetuated by Putin’s Russia; 3.7 million Ukrainians have been displaced within Ukraine with another 6.3 million fleeing the nation altogether.
They have captured the town of Sudhza, which, with around 6,000 residents, is not itself of tactical significance. War analysts presume Khalino Air Base in Kursk’s capital city of the same name is a motivation for this incursion.
The Russian Aerospace Force’s 14th Guards Fighter Aviation Regiment is armed with twenty-four Sukhoi Su-30SM Flanker-C’s. The multirole, 4+ generation aircraft is exported to a multitude of countries around the globe and has the capacity to carry three-ton KAB glide bombs, which range 25 miles or more.
More than 50 of these KAB glide bombs where utilized to destroy bridges and pummel bases in Sumy Oblast, Ukraine.
Khalino is just 65 miles from the Ukrainian border, and has been utilized in assaults deep into Ukrainian territory. The Ukrainian military has already attempted to neutralize the base numerous times previously, with efforts intensifying as of late:
- A drone raid in 2022 triggered a fuel fire.
- Eight months later, a cardboard drone attack was initiated.
- On 31 July 2024, Ukrainian navy Neptune cruise missiles struck the base.
Ultimately, analysts speculate that the incursion is an effort to distract Russian forces from their occupation of the Donbas. It’s been working; Russian forces have been seen moving north from Donbas to neutralize Ukrainian forces in Kursk.
Those five Ukrainian brigades are serving as a deadly red herring; they are trying to destroy Khalino Air Base while simultaneously drawing forces away from the Donhas so that their comrades may perform a counterattack.
President of Russia, Vladimir Putin was forced to call an emergency meeting with his war cabinet. Putin told the Kremlin that the incursion was “a major provocation” by Kyiv.
The governor of Kursk declared a state of emergency, declaring the situation as “very difficult.”
The incursion will lower the morale of Russian forces: Russia prides itself in its land. The last time any nation was able to invade Russia was in 1941, when Hitler invaded the Soviet Union in Operation Barbarossa.
In 2022, a similar tactic was employed by Ukrainian forces, leading to the recovery of the Kharkiv region in around a week.
However, the incursion is still an unexpected tactic, with one analyst going as far as to say it was “doing the least obvious thing.”
Russia has lost control of more than 250 square kilometers of their own territory.
And the region which Ukraine has seized is home to a gas pipeline going straight to Europe.
However, this force probably won’t assert any sort of control over the area in the near future: CNN describes it as “expeditionary” and as exploiting “the absence of organized resistance to make ground quickly.”
Nonetheless, the operation still possesses significance, as it will lower Russian morale and expose weaknesses.
Russia has not focused in fortifying its own border, rather they have dwelled on their invasion of Ukraine, leading to a consequential challenge to Russian security.
Written by Eshan Korat
