President-elect Donald Trump has been alluding to the idea of expanding United States influence into Greenland. Trump says that he would use force if necessary to gain Greenland from Denmark which is the exact opposite argument that the US was making against Russia for invading Ukraine. Trump’s words could severely damage relations with Europe. However, many European leaders believe that Trump will not act on his words and send troops onto Greenland’s soil. European leaders have been speaking in support of Nato member Denmark. Italian Premier Girogia Mellonia has stated that she does not believe that the United States would use force to take land for many years to come. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that countries should not move borders by force. However, the German Chancellor did not mention Trump’s name in the statement. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said that he wanted people to feel that their country was not under the threat of invasion. The French Foreign Minister made more aggressive remarks with him stating that he thinks that civilization is returning to the law of the strongest. The law of the strongest says that the strongest country dictates laws without regard to morals or ethics. The Prime Minister of Greenland says that the people of Greenland do not want to be Americans ,but he was open to further cooperation between the United states and Greenland. While analysts agree that there is a low chance of the United States taking military action against Greenland, they think that this would weaken ties within NATO. The fact that Canada was also instituted by Trump to become the 51st state shows that these claims are likely to be political bravado according to experts. Experts fear that these remarks will damage NATO before Trump is even inaugurated into the White House.
The motivation for Trump to take Greenland is most likely due to competition between the United States and China. China currently possesses the biggest supply of valuable minerals. Greenland however possesses many rare earths and minerals that are necessary to make advanced and green technologies. Another contributing reason for why Trump wants Greenland so badly is Greenland’s location. Greenland has a coveted position regarding warfare in the Arctic region. With a warming Arctic, many shipping routes will also open near Greenland which could give the United States more control on trade and give them more economic power. It even helps with defense of the homeland of the United States with its close proximity to the continent of North America. Frangeul-Alves who reports about US politics to the German Marshall fund stated that this is a part of Trump’s Make America Great Again plan. He continues that any decision that every policy is made with the perspective of competing with China. Security Analyst Alexander Khara stated that Trump’s remarks remind her of Putin’s when he invaded Crimea. Khara continued that this would set a detrimental precedent that borders are flexible. This would lead to many conflicts and Chaos. He thinks that times are changing and that we are heading towards a more chaotic and violent time.
There are 4 main ways that this situation could play out. The First situation is that Trump loses interest over Greenland and nothing happens as there is speculation that Trump will not act on his words. It could be a move to focus Denmarks’ attention on Greenland in the face of the threat of Russia and China wanting to influence the Arctic region.The second reason is that Greenland votes for independence and pursues close ties to the United States. There is a general consensus in Greenland that it will eventually seek independence. It is only a matter of time. It could have free association which would closely resemble the relation between the United States and Palau. This would subside the need for Denmar to pay for healthcare and the welfare system. The third scenario is that Trump will step up economic pressure. This would see the United States increase tariffs placed on Denmark’s goods. This would severely disrupt the country’s growth and could even facilitate Denmark willingly handing Greenland over to the United States. The final scenario is the most drastic one with it being Trump invading Greenland. Trump would most likely succeed in his invasion of Greenland with there already being considerable US military personnel on Greenland’s soil. This would be disastrous for NATO due to its biggest contributor attacking smaller alliance members. This could lead to NATO not guaranteeing safety from other alliance members which would be a dangerous precedent to set. This scenario is the least likely with the first one being the most likely of all the scenarios. Trump’s words while seeming like an attack on Greenland at first is probably just some political bravado he is saying in the face of the American people.
Written by Samarth Irani
