The Assad family’s reign over Syria, which spanned more than five decades, came to a dramatic conclusion on December 8, 2024. The political landscape in Syria saw a tectonic shift as President Bashar al-Assad, one of the most iron-fisted rulers in modern times, fled to Moscow as rebel forces entered Damascus without any opposition. This development, unprecedented in many ways, signals the end of a regime characterized by authoritarianism, civil war, and immense human suffering. But the future of Syria remains uncertain, with power to be transferred to an alliance of rebel factions led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
A Family Dynasty Toppled
The rule of the Assad family started in 1970 when Hafez al-Assad seized power in a military coup. His iron-fisted governance laid the bed for his son Bashar to take over in 2000. Under Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s political landscape remained repressive, culminating in the violent suppression of a peaceful pro-democracy uprising in 2011. This has sparked a devastating civil war, killing more than half a million people and displacing 12 million others.
Assaad’s grip on power appeared solid by 2020 when his government regained control over most of Syria’s cities due to the support from Russia, Iran, and Iranian proxy forces such as Hezbollah. But what happened in the closing weeks of 2024 was that this regime collapsed when the speed and coordination of rebel forces attacked it with so much speed.
The Rebel Offensive and Assad’s Flight
On November 27, 2024, HTS and other rebel groups launched a massive offensive from the northwestern stronghold of the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo. Within days, they captured Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, following minimal resistance as the government forces quickly retreated. From Aleppo, the rebels had pushed south to capture Hama and Homs on the way to reach Damascus on December 8. The military of the Assad government had been weakened by years of war, sanctions, and corruption and could not mount any effective resistance.
The Syrians took to the streets to celebrate by the thousands as rebels entered Damascus. Next came word from Russia that Assad had resigned, fled to Moscow, and was granted asylum. “The future is ours,” HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani said, as a new era in governance unfolded for Syria.
The Role of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
HTS played a central role in the regime’s collapse. Formed initially in 2012 as the al-Nusra Front, the group was one of the most effective and feared fighting forces against Assad. It officially broke ties with al-Qaeda in 2016 and rebranded as HTS, but remains a designated terrorist organization according to the United Nations, United States, and other international actors. Under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, HTS cemented its control over Idlib and Aleppo provinces, establishing what it called the Syrian Salvation Government to administer the territory in accordance with Islamic law.
HTS launched the attack under the pretext of deterring the “aggression” of the Assad government and Iran-backed militias. The timing was strategic, as the Syrian military was particularly vulnerable at that time, and key allies for Assad, like Russia with its war in Ukraine and Iran with its various battles in Lebanon and Syria, were already preoccupied.
A Complex Coalition of Forces
While HTS was leading the offensive, it was not a single player in the dramatically shifting balance of power in Syria. Parallel attacks by Turkish-backed rebel factions against Kurdish-controlled territories in northern Syria further complicated the overall scenario. These factions, supported by Turkish troops, used the government’s retreat to expand their influence.
Meanwhile, other one-time Assad loyalists have managed to retain control over significant swathes of the Mediterranean coastline and the mountainous west-which are strongholds of the Alawite sect and hosts for crucial Russian military bases-and will likely remain tense with different competing forces.
The Human Cost
The rapid offensive left a trail of destruction and suffering. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that at least 910 people, including 138 civilians, were killed during the campaign. Thousands more were displaced as fighting engulfed their communities.
Despite these challenges, the rebels sought to present themselves as unifying forces. They released detainees from Saydnaya prison and pledged to build a “homeland for all, including all sects and social classes”.
International Reactions
Global and regional powers have responded with variances concerning the fall of the Assad regime. Russia, once known to be Assad’s staunchest supporter, announced his departure, appearing surprised, and expressed urgency for stability in this period of transition. Iran would later say it hoped that national dialogue would ensue while saying the need for inclusiveness for the new government was underlined by Turkey.
The United States welcomed Assad’s fall as a “fundamental act of justice,” while warning that HTS’s Islamist ideology presents a number of risks. Similarly, Israel framed Assad’s collapse in the context of its own military actions against Hezbollah and Iran-back forces, emphasizing the greater regional dynamics at play with the regime’s fall.
Challenges Ahead
The way forward for Syria is not easy. The ability of the HTS-led coalition to govern effectively and inclusively remains to be seen, especially considering its Islamist leanings and history of internal factionalism. Additionally, the sustained conflicts in parts of Syria, such as Deir al-Zour and Kurdish-controlled territories, point out the potential for further fragmentation.
Moreover, the international community is in a dilemma-a dilemma of engaging with a transition government that includes HTS. The balance between stability on one side and the legitimization of a terrorist organization on the other will indeed require careful diplomacy.
The Road to Reconstruction
For Syria to rebuild, it will have to deal with the huge humanitarian and economic toll of the war. Infrastructure has been decimated, millions remain displaced, and the scars of conflict run deep. International support will be crucial in facilitating reconstruction and fostering a political environment that prioritizes inclusivity and human rights.
A Transformative Moment
The fall of the Assad regime represents a transformative moment in Syria’s history. It not only closes an era marked by authoritarianism and war but also ushers in a period of profound uncertainty. As Syrians navigate this new chapter, the world watches closely, hopeful that the nation can emerge from its trials to build a future rooted in justice, peace, and unity.
Written by Sadhika Kari
