In a very surprising turn of events, the 54-year reign of the al-Assad regime in Syria has come to an end seemingly overnight. On December 8, Bashar al-Assad has fled the nation and sought refuge in Russia, which all marks the downfall of one of the most ruthless regimes in contemporary Middle Eastern history. He was recognized as one to suppress freedom of the press and rule with an iron fist. This unexpected collapse occurred just 12 days into clashes between the Syrian military and a coalition of opposition forces, effectively ending the 13-year Syrian civil war that has ravaged the country’s economy and social fabric.
The economic toll of Assad’s rule and the subsequent civil war has been staggering. Syria’s gross domestic product has shrunk by over 85% between 2011 and 2023, plummeting from $67.5 billion to a mere $9 billion. The World Bank projects a further 1.5% contraction in 2024, extending the economic freefall that has gripped the nation for over a decade.
The devastation is palpable across all sectors of the Syrian economy. Once a major oil exporter in the region, Syria’s oil production has nosedived from 383,000 barrels per day before the civil war to a paltry 90,000 barrels per day last year. The country that once proudly exported oil now relies heavily on imports, mainly from Iran, to meet its energy needs. Syria’s oil imports nearly doubled from 2020 to 2023, now accounting for almost half of domestic oil production.
Agriculture, another main pillar of Syria’s pre-war economy, has also been impacted. Cultivated land has shrunk by 25% compared to pre-civil war levels, with farmers struggling to access essential inputs such as seeds, fertilizers, and machinery. The World Bank reports that this has resulted in diminishing agricultural production, further exacerbating the problem of food insecurity in the country.
The Syrian pound has not escaped the economic carnage, depreciating against the dollar by a staggering 270 times between 2011 and 2023. This currency collapse has fueled rampant inflation, eroding the purchasing power of Syrian households and businesses alike. Consumer price inflation is estimated to have risen by 93% in 2023, exacerbated by government subsidy cuts.
In response to dwindling revenues, which have plummeted 85% since 2010, the Assad regime implemented severe authoritarian measures. Government expenditures were slashed by 87% in 2023 compared to 2010, with subsidies bearing the brunt of these cuts. The share of subsidies in the state budget was reduced from 42% to 19% on an annual basis in 2023, leading to soaring prices for essential goods such as gas, oil, and medicine.
The human cost of this economic collapse is staggering. According to the World Bank, 69% of Syrians now live in poverty. Even more alarming is the rise of extreme poverty, which was virtually non-existent before the conflict but now affects more than one in four Syrians. The February 2023 earthquake further exacerbated these dire conditions.
Syria’s exports and imports have also seen unprecedented declines. Exports fell by 89% to less than $1 billion compared to the beginning of the civil war, while imports declined by 81% to $3.2 billion. This dramatic reduction in trade has further isolated Syria from the global economy and limited its potential for recovery.
The country’s infrastructure lies in ruins, with cities like Aleppo, Raqqa, and Homs bearing the scars of widespread destruction. Nearly 5 million Syrians which is more than a fifth of the country’s population has further depleted the nation’s human capital. An additional 7 million Syrians, more than 30% of the population, remain internally displaced as of December, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
As Syria struggles with the aftermath of Assad’s rule, the path to economic recovery remains fraught with challenges. Some Syria watchers have warned that it could take nearly 10 years for the country to return to its 2011 GDP level and two decades for full reconstruction. These projections hinge on political stability and international support, both of which remain uncertain in the current geopolitical climate.
The newly formed rebel alliance, spearheaded by the militant Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, faces the monumental task of rebuilding a shattered economy. Their success will depend on their ability to attract international investment, restore key industries, and reintegrate Syria into the global economy. However, sectarianism and its potential for continued instability remain over these efforts. Mr. Hayat determines how the future of Syria will go but as it stands, he is recognized as a possible threat due to numerous human rights violations.
Written by Aniruddh Sajan
