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As Iran vows to close the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. strikes and escalated tensions with Israel, India watches with unease. Over 2 million barrels of its daily oil imports flow through this narrow passage. A shutdown could shake its economy.
More than a waterway
The Strait of Hormuz isn’t just a sea route. It’s the lifeline for nearly 20% of the world’s oil and gas. India imports 90% of its crude, and more than 40% of that comes from Middle Eastern suppliers who rely on this channel.
Any closure, even temporary, would jolt global oil prices. Brent crude already rose to $77 per barrel. Analysts warn it could spike above $90 if conflict worsens.
India is preparing, but not immune
Officials say there’s no panic. India has strategic reserves covering 9–10 days and has been ramping up oil imports from Russia, the U.S., and Brazil. Russian oil now exceeds imports from the Gulf, and shipments from the U.S. are rising fast.
Still, the risks are real. Reduced tanker movement hints at disruptions ahead. Tanker operators are already pulling back from Gulf routes. That could force India to shift strategies, again.
Every rupee matters
Even if oil keeps flowing, higher prices mean pain at the pump. Diesel, LPG, and petrol subsidies may return to ease the burden on consumers. For millions who rely on cooking gas or public transport, a price hike would hurt.
India’s economy, still recovering from global shocks, can’t afford another energy crisis. The government is watching closely, ready to act if prices spiral.
A balancing act, under fire
This is more than logistics. It’s diplomacy. India must navigate ties with Iran, the U.S., Israel, and the Gulf states, all while securing its energy future.
For now, oil still flows. But in a region where one missile can change global markets overnight, India’s challenge isn’t just supply. It’s staying steady in the storm.
Written by Dhruva Ambati
