Amid the United States’ uncertain political future, military experts have suggested that there is a distinct possibility Iran will declare itself a nuclear power by the end of this year. These warnings are echoed by senior officials in the intelligence community as well as intelligence advisers to Congress.
Republican Representative Mike Turner, who heads the House Intelligence Committee, raised the possibility in an interview on Sunday. He went on to blame President Biden for his administration’s lenient and permissive approach to Iran as well as the lack of “any red lines”. The result, Turner said, was a more emboldened Iran which Biden was “not holding accountable”.
In 2015, Iran signed a nuclear deal with several nations, including the US under the Obama administration, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action. The deal saw Iran limit its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and was largely successful until President Trump withdrew the US in 2018. Trump asserted that it hadn’t been effective and claimed that he could reach a better agreement with Iran, though he never did. The following year, Iran resumed work on its nuclear program.
Many have outlined, however, the distinction between possessing weapons-grade uranium – which would essentially make Iran a ‘nuclear state’ – and being able to effectively deploy a nuclear weapon. Whilst Iran is capable of producing a nuclear warhead should they decide to, Western experts believe they do not have the capabilities to launch it and Iran is yet to begin tests of delivery vehicles.
The US and Israel remain adamantly opposed to Iran obtaining nuclear capabilities – not only because of the risk Iran may pose to the two countries but also because it might spark demand by other regional heavyweights such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt to also have nuclear weapons. A Biden administration official said, “We remain deeply concerned with Iran’s nuclear activities and will continue to monitor them. We are committed to never letting Iran obtain a nuclear weapon – and we are prepared to use all elements of national power to ensure that outcome.”
Concern over Iran’s largely unmonitored nuclear program is on the rise following the breakdown of the JCPOA and the instability in the Middle East as the Israel-Hamas war rages into its tenth month. In July, Iran was discovered to have been trying to source more uranium from West Africa which alarmed experts who suggested that Iran’s growing enriched uranium stockpile may be an indication of an ongoing weapons program. Tehran maintains that its nuclear program is for civilian use however, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated that, should Tehran decide to construct a nuclear weapon, they would only need “probably one or two weeks.”
Written by Rakan Pharaon
