On July 8, 2024, Prime Minister Modi commenced his two-day trip to Moscow, Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin, the same day that Russian Missiles attacked a children’s hospital in Kyiv causing 29 casualties and dozens of injuries. Before leaving for his trip, Modi mentioned that he looks “forward to reviewing all aspects of bilateral cooperation with my friend President Vladimir Putin and sharing perspectives on various regional and global issues,” adding that, “they seek to play a supportive role for a peaceful and stable region.” This visit comes after Prime Minister Modi, time and time again avoids urges from Western nations, including the United States, to condemn Russia’s actions towards Ukraine with Modi instead advocating an eventual diplomatic settlement between both parties involved. During the trip Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the Order of St. Andrew the Apostle the First-Called by President Putin.
On August 23, 2024, Prime Minister Modi made history by being the first Indian leader to have taken a diplomatic trip to Ukraine since the country’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. His visit comes at a time when Ukrainian officials have made clear that they hope to garner support amongst non-western nations ahead of any potential settlement negotiations on the conflict. Modi approached President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a “friend” conveying his respect and support for Ukraine’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity” adding that it is their “highest priority” to maintain so. He mentioned to President Zelenskyy that during his July trip to Moscow, he had a discussion with Putin where he emphasized that “problems cannot be resolved on the battlefield” and the only applaudable solution is through “dialogue and diplomacy.”
What was Modi Hoping to Achieve and what obstacles are in his way?
In hopes of demonstrating that India is a strong contender on the international stage, and to strengthen their international clout, Modi wants India to play the role of a friendly mediator in resolving the conflict. However, he wants to bring his country onto the world stage without any formally binding alliances while still seeking a permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council to show that India cannot be left on the sidelines for matters of international importance. This way, India will reap the economic benefits of being openly friendly with Russia without ostracizing the Western world which keeps them open to benefits from both economic giants
Modi’s trip to Kyiv wasn’t simply just to advance geopolitical aspirations, but also a defensive move, as his initial trip to Russia —which happened at the same time as the NATO summit commemorating the 75th anniversary of the alliance’s founding and as missiles were launched at a children’s hospital in Ukraine— generated much backlash, especially from Washington which expressed its frustrations that the timing of the trip would damage optics as the organization is hoping to stand with Ukraine in its struggles against Russia’s aggression. At a news conference in New Delhi, U.S. Ambassador Eric Garcetti provided criticism of the India-Russia meeting and warned the former that friendship with a nation like the U.S. is something they shouldn’t take “for granted.” “I respect that India likes its strategic autonomy. But in times of conflict, there is no such thing as strategic autonomy,” he added. By traveling to Ukraine and greeting President Zelenskyy with the term “friend” just as he did with President Putin, Modi displayed his neutrality, showing the world that he still seeks to mediate the conflict, without taking formal sides. President Joe Biden “commended” Modi on trip to Kyiv giving praise to his “message of peace and ongoing humanitarian support.”
The economic ties that bind India and Russia have further complicated India’s hope for mediation. US sanctions on Russian oil have allowed New Delhi to purchase Russian oil, which now comprises over 44% of India’s total oil imports which they purchased at a discounted price at above the G7 price cap. India also depends on Russian arms for defense systems which contributes close to 50% of their inventory. Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre says that, “Mr. Modi has a strong incentive to signal that it’s not leaning so close to Moscow that there’s nothing to salvage with Kyiv.”
What did Ukraine hope to gain?
Their primary objective was to mend ties with India, after Modi’s July visit to Moscow. In June of this year, Zelenskyy organized his first summit in Switzerland as a kickoff for his 10-point peace formula. Modi himself did not attend this event that hosted 100 other countries and institutions, but he did send delegates who in the end did not sign the final document that highlighted “principles of sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all states, including Ukraine.” Just weeks after India’s minimal participation in this event came Modi’s embracing of Putin which caused unrest between Ukraine and India. Modi’s trip to Kyiv was an olive branch to resume friendly ties with one another. Still, Zelensky hasn’t expressed his full support for Modi’s onboarding as a mediator but Oleksandr Merezko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament and chair of the body’s foreign affairs committee did express that “It’s important for us to have a direct dialogue with [Modi], and persuade him to be on the right side of history.”
What does this mean for potential peace talks and how have they been advancing?
Yehor Cherniev who is a member of the Ukrainian parliament and the chairman of the Ukrainian NATO Parliamentary Assembly Delegation said that, “It’s difficult to predict any outcomes of peace negotiations,” especially as Kyiv has not faltered on its demands for full territorial liberation as they have time and time again expressed that they, “will never do this,” in regards to giving over territorial concessions.
As of September 2, 2024, with the continued invasion of the Russian Kursk region, Putin has changed his stance on peace talks with Ukraine. While speaking with students in Siberia he expressed that he feels the “desire” to enter peace talks adding that he is “sure that this provocation will fail as well. It seems to [him] there will be a desire to really, not in words but in deeds, move on to peace negotiations and resolve these issues by peaceful means.” He continues by saying, “We have never given up on this, but we must, of course, deal with these bandits who have entered the territory of the Russian Federation.” Just a few months earlier, in June of 2024, Putin expressed that he would only be open to peace talks if Ukraine withdrew their troops from a couple of regions including Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson as well as terminated their endeavors to join NATO. His recent remarks signal a shift in his perspective giving some hope that there is a chance for peace talks to take place in the future and hope that eventually a compromise can be reached.
Written by Sadhika Kari
