2024 has earned its name as “the mother of all election years,” with over 60 elections across the globe—nearly half within the EU. Amid this democratic flurry, a clear trend emerged: the far right is gaining ground. From Austria’s Freedom Party victory in February to Marine Le Pen’s National Rally overtaking Macron’s centrist alliance in June, populism is reshaping Europe. Germany, the EU’s largest economy, is next in line as it prepares for pivotal federal elections in 2025.
At the center of Germany’s political turbulence is the rise of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), a right-wing populist party capitalizing on structural inequality and disillusionment. To understand this shift, it helps to apply the VUCA framework—Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity—a model originally developed by the U.S. military to navigate unpredictable environments, and increasingly used to analyse modern governance.
Volatility has defined Germany’s political climate throughout the year. In January, tens of thousands of Germans flooded the streets in protest against the AfD’s rising influence, and by summer, that number had surged to over 200,000. While these demonstrations signal strong public resistance to extremism, they have also amplified national tension. Violent attacks on AfD members reached a record 86 incidents in 2023, the highest of any political party. As Germany’s political centre fractures, public discourse grows more polarized.
The uncertainty doesn’t end at Germany’s borders. Across Europe, political fragmentation has made governing difficult. France is currently in limbo after President Macron lost a vote of no confidence. Meanwhile, Poland’s Law and Justice Party continues to clash with EU courts. Germany’s coalition government, once seen as a model of compromise, collapsed in November after Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner, triggering snap elections in 2025. The AfD now polls as the second-largest party in several federal states. With no clear path forward, Germany’s political future remains opaque.
Driving this instability is complexity, particularly in the form of economic, internal, and international inequalities. In East Germany, many feel left behind—19% of East Germans say life was better before reunification. AfD support in these regions has surged, jumping 5.7% in Brandenburg’s state election this year. Nationally, anxieties over immigration persist. Germany is the only EU country where “immigration” ranked as voters’ top concern in 2024, amid rising fears about labour competition, public services, and identity.
Externally, many Germans are also questioning the country’s role as the EU’s financial anchor. In 2023, Germany contributed €33.8 billion to the EU budget but received only a fraction back—resulting in a net negative of €235 million. By contrast, countries like Estonia received far more than they contributed. For parties like the AfD, this imbalance fuels eurosceptic arguments and calls for “Dexit,” echoing Britain’s departure from the bloc.
The AfD’s vision doesn’t stop at Brussels. Its leaders have questioned NATO’s mission and echoed the rhetoric of China and Russia on national sovereignty and non-intervention. These positions risk weakening transatlantic alliances, especially as Donald Trump prepares to return to the U.S. presidency on a populist, protectionist mandate. Germany’s future role in conflicts like Ukraine and trade disputes with China may become increasingly contentious.
Finally, ambiguity reigns. Though right-wing populists make up only 24% of the European Parliament, their presence is already influencing mainstream parties to shift rightward. With both Macron and Scholz facing fragile mandates or caretaker governments, upcoming elections in France and Germany could significantly reshape Europe’s political landscape. The question remains: are these populist surges temporary symptoms or signs of deeper transformation?
As 2025 begins, the VUCA world—volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous—is not just a framework, but a reality shaping Europe’s largest democracy. Whether Germany can weather the storm or becomes its epicentre will depend on how it addresses the inequalities at the heart of its political crisis.
Written by Cassie Zheng
