Foreign policy has traditionally taken a backseat to domestic concerns in U.S. presidential elections. It is generally “bread and butter” issues such as the economy, healthcare, and jobs that voters cite as most influencing their votes. But with the 2024 presidential election looming, the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are pushing foreign policy to the forefront, an issue that could tip a close election either way.
The Importance of Foreign Policy in 2024
A September 2024 poll from the Pew Research Center shows that 62 percent of voters consider foreign policy one of the top issues in this election cycle. Still, the economy tops this list; strikingly high is the rate of attention to foreign policy as such, considering the many conflicts in which the U.S. is currently involved. Of particular concern are the Russia-Ukraine war and the escalating Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah conflict in the Middle East, both of which have forced voters and candidates to reassess the nation’s role on the global stage.
Historically, foreign policy has not always been decisive in U.S. elections. After the Cold War, public interest in foreign affairs waned, with surveys showing only five percent of Americans listing foreign policy as a top priority. Even the long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, despite costing trillions of dollars and thousands of lives, failed to dominate election debates in the years following 9/11. However, in a race as tight as the current one between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, foreign policy concerns could sway undecided voters in critical battleground states.
Foreign Policy’s Complex Role in the 2024 Race
The continuous war in the Middle East, especially the conflict between the Israel-Hamas War, has become the hot issue that Harris and Trump have been focusing on. Both candidates address this with varying approaches and the way they are trying to court voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania-States that have large Arab-American and Jewish populations, which could be crucial in those razor-thin margins expected in several battleground states.
Kamala Harris also aped the Biden administration in strongly supporting Israel while condemning civilian casualties in Gaza and Lebanon. This balancing act brought mixed responses. More recently, during an event last week in which Harris was confronted by a pro-Palestinian protestor, she seemed to agree when someone described the Israelis as committing “genocide,” a comment her campaign quickly needed to clean up. They claimed Harris was not supporting the protestor’s specific claims but the entire humanitarian situation in Gaza as a whole. All the same, her stance on the conflict has left some voters, particularly in the Arab American community, frustrated that she hasn’t come out hard enough against President Biden’s policies.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump has taken a much more aggressive approach, going so far as to insist the war never would have occurred if he were in office and promising that if he’s elected again, the war will end quickly. Using his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump made sure to say a second Harris term will ensure the conflict in the Middle East spills into an international crisis “that will end in World War III.”. That rhetoric plays well for his base, but it is yet to be seen whether that will win undecided voters.
Battleground States: Arab American and Jewish Voters in Focus
The war between Israel and Hamas has become more personal in states like Michigan, with the largest Arab American population in the United States. The Biden administration’s handling of this conflict has caused immense disappointment among the many voters in this community, who feel that US support for Israel is contributing to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Although Harris did instill hope that she could bring about positive change to this demographic group, her policy shifts have largely mirrored Biden’s, which has left a number of Arab American voters feeling betrayed.
For Harris, maintaining the delicate balance between supporting Israel and addressing concerns about the humanitarian toll in Gaza has been a significant challenge. Her campaign has sought to clarify her stance, emphasizing her empathy for Palestinian civilians while reaffirming the U.S.’s support for Israel’s right to defend itself. This strategy is aimed at both appeasing Jewish voters, particularly in battleground states like Pennsylvania, and softening the criticism from Arab American voters in places like Michigan (Euronews, 2024). However, the mixed messaging has left some Democratic voters uncertain, especially those looking for a candidate willing to take a stronger stand against the conflict.
By contrast, Trump’s pitches to the Mideast conflict have been plain straightforward: he is portrayed as a tough character who can prevent further worsening and bring that region back to stability. All that sounds attractive to voters, for whom strength and decisiveness are the two qualities indispensable for any commander-in-chief. Yet, his critics pointed to the fact that his foreign policy during his first term in office, especially those solo acts in the Middle East, contributed to far-reaching instability.
The Broader Impact of U.S. Foreign Policy
Beyond the Israel-Hamas War, voters are concerned about broader implications of U.S. foreign policy in light of the war in Ukraine and the ongoing immigration crisis. To this day, under the Biden administration, the United States has provided considerable financial and military support to Ukraine-very opinionated among the public. Harris has been careful to frame continued U.S. support for Ukraine as a matter of global stability and American leadership. Meanwhile, Trump has assailed the Biden administration’s handling of the war, suggesting that U.S. involvement has protracted the conflict unnecessarily. Al Jazeera reports, 2024.
Another issue deeply connected to foreign policy is immigration, which is very prevalent in the 2024 election. The U.S.-Mexico border crisis has been hotly debated for many years, with Harris and Trump having different ideas on how to deal with it. Harris has called for more humane immigration policies that address the root causes of migration, while Trump has doubled down on his promise to secure the border and dramatic cuts to immigration flows.
These are not exclusively foreign policy issues but are inextricably linked with domestic ones, from national security to the distribution of resources spent on social services. For the most marginalized communities, especially those literally being battered at the hands of economic inequalities, U.S. foreign policy is directly impactful on their daily living. For them, this is about billions of dollars spent on military aid abroad, which could be invested in healthcare, education, or infrastructure at home.
Will Foreign Policy Tip the Election?
Foreign policy has seldom decided US elections, but 2024 promises to be dramatically different. With several global crises underway, and with the United States deeply embroiled in most of them, voters are paying close attention to how the next president will confront these challenges. According to a Pew Research poll, a large number of voters make it an issue, especially Trump supporters-70 percent of those surveyed name the issue as important. Among Harris voters, it is not as much of a driving issue, though 54 percent name foreign policy as a top concern.
In an election as close as the one at hand, with each candidate attempting to wrest the support of key demographics in the contested states, foreign policy could well prove to be the decider. With tensions in the Middle East running high and the war in Ukraine grinding on, the voters are looking for a leader to maneuver them through these complexities without taking the U.S. into deeper conflicts. Whether Harris’s delicate balancing act or Trump’s bombastic promises will resonate more with the electorate, remains to be seen, but one thing is sure: it’s playing a bigger role than it has in many years.
Conclusion
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is unfolding against an extraordinary geopolitical backdrop in which foreign policy has taken center stage, conventionally dislodged by domestic issues. With crises in Ukraine and the Middle East commanding headlines, and key battleground states housing populations deeply invested in these issues, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are considering how to posture themselves as the best candidate to handle America’s role in the world. And with election day now just weeks away, one salient question remains: will foreign policy prove to be the determining factor in what looks to be a very tight race?
Written by Sadhika Kari
