In the wake of President Biden ending his bid for re-election and endorsing Vice President Harris, the people of Europe have had reactions varying from joy to anguish, and from indifference to a renewed passion for the goings on across the pond. The leaders’ response can be categorised into three- those who view Harris as just another obstacle in Trump’s inevitable win, those who appreciate Biden’s patriotic drop-out, and those who sit back and watch the televised horse race in glee. The elections in America have a massive impact on the state of a world that is already hanging by a loose thread. What is the effect of this election on Europe moving towards the far-right?
Biden’s Exit
According to Reuters, Biden’s administration’s disapproval has been rising since 2022. Donald Trump’s approval ratings rose after the shooting and led in the polls by two per cent when tested by YouGov on Jul. 16. With the election approaching, the possibility of re-election seemed more and more unlikely, serving as a source of restlessness for those who do not want Trump in office once again. It goes without surprise that a sense of relief has accompanied the announcement of his drop out from the Presidential race on Jul. 21. The exit itself was fuelled by the growing sentiment among the people, the polls, and his party, that he was too old and frail to serve and was certain to lose in the coming elections.
In the wake of the drop-out, many European leaders have expressed their support for such a move. A plethora of leaders across the pond including the Irish, German, Spanish, Czech, and Polish leaders have all sung their praises for the work President Biden has done in his tenure. Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the decision “tough but strong”. Dimitri Peskov, a spokesperson from the Kremlin said that the war against Ukraine “is a priority, rather than the outcome of the US elections” and that “the future of Russian [and] American relations, which are now experiencing the worst period in history” is “very important” to them. The freshly elected British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer said that he respected the decision which he believes Biden based on the best interests of the American people. Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz called for recognition of Biden’s decision and praised the latter’s partnership with his country and NATO.
Biden and Europe
In the past three-and-a-half years of his presidency, as CSIS states in a report from earlier this year, American relations with Europe have prospered, both in terms of economy and defence. The increase in American involvement in NATO, increasing US forces in Europe, and expansion of the relationship with the EU- mainly cooperating to impose sanctions against Russia. A strategic relationship with the European Commission’s president, Ursula von der Layer was developed alongside the expansion and development of relations with the EU. To ease conflicts on long-standing trade routes, a new forum, the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council, was founded in 2021. These policies were expected to continue in the event of a Biden re-election.
Europe, for its part, has always been less of an equal and more dependent on the US for trade and especially, defence. That Biden has been keen to build on was based on his experience in foreign policy, and his age which contributed to his firm belief in enduring US-Europe bonds. This Atlanticism, which according to Carnegie Europe, we might never see again in another American President, is something that Europe has relied on for a long time and might not see again, in the case of Trump’s return to the Oval Office.
Harris’s Entry
An interest was, once again, sparked in Europe as it was announced that Vice President Kamala Harris would take Biden’s place. The race, in many minds, was now more even- Harris stood a chance to win against her Republican opponent. This interest led to a deep dive into who she was, which, in an odd but certainly fortunate stroke of luck, presented an opportunity for her to hold the pen in writing the narrative about her beliefs, her policies, and her career- which until recently has been foggy. This narrative has shown her to be a determined and ambitious prosecutor from California who rose the ranks from the District Attorney of San Francisco at 39, Attorney General of California at 46, Senator of California at 52, and (after a failed attempt at securing nomination as the Democrats’ pick for President) Joe Biden’s running mate in 2021.
Americans in Europe, many of whom are reluctant to see Trump back in Office, have expressed their “hopeful[ness] for the election this autumn. During the spring, I was full of trepidation, feeling certain that Trump would win in a landslide due to the public’s lack of faith in Joe Biden and a weird, lingering trust in Trump despite the repeated demonstrations of his corruption and general crookedness. Then Biden’s awkward press conferences early in the summer allowed his critics to capitalise on his increasing age and possible senility. And then, with the ‘assassination’ attempt on Trump at the rally in Pennsylvania, I was feeling even worse about the prospects. I thought that would hand him the election as he would be seen as a hero to the people. The handover to Harris was a turning point, though. I don’t think the Republicans know what to do with her and their approach now is attacking her ethnicity and manipulating her press conferences,” is a statement from Dr Abigail Gometz, a history teacher in Stockholm.
Indeed, there has been a clear rise in interest in voting for the Democrats after Harris entered into the race. Her campaign garnered more than $81 million, said campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz, in the 24 hours following the President’s announcement of suspending the re-election bid. This amount, AP News says, surpasses the funds raised by any of the campaigns in this election. There have also been spikes in both polls and voting registration, both of which have been spearheaded by the young and women. According to a poll conducted by CBS in mid-August, more people registered as Democrats will vote in the upcoming elections than previously, and more women have a favourable opinion of Harris than Trump by 12 points. The Democratic Convention in Chicago will also help clear up many of the questions about their candidate’s policies. In Europe, according to a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center in 18 countries, some of which were in Europe, 10 out of 11 countries surveyed have confidence in Harris.
Harris and Europe
Harris is projected to continue relations with the EU and NATO the way Biden did, effectively giving the European leaders what they would like from the Americans. The people of Europe are no different, the spokesperson of Democrats Abroad told DW ‘Kamala-mania’ has caught on throughout Europe and has become an “amazing phenomenon” with non-US citizens asking for ways they can contribute to Harris’ campaign. This desire to get her elected is fuelled by a need to see change- especially for the youth who, for so long have seen snail-paced governmental actions, or no action at all in the form of a woman of colour. This excitement over her is juxtaposed by right-wing politicians in Europe, such as AfD Member of European Parliament Maximilian Krah, Politico reports, thinks that “this will not stop Trump either”.
Should she win, Harris is likely to continue support for Ukraine, though this support may collide if members of the Senate of the Democrats lose control of the upper house. She is not expected to change the American stance on China, a slew of tariffs and what the Chinese call “tech containment”. In continuing with this stance, her approach will likely be, what the RUSI research organisation calls, “cautious engagement”. The war in Gaza is one of the few policies that might change under Harris.
Whilst she might not agree to impose an arms embargo on Israel, she has shown to be far keener on a two-state solution and has repeatedly emphasised her support for the people of Gaza.
There is also the matter of who will hold cabinet positions. Governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz was announced as her running mate. He has not been involved with the federal government and therefore has very few ties with foreign policy. He has, however, firmly rooted himself as a centrist. Another position that might be of interest to Europe is that of the National Security Advisor, which might be filled by Phillip Gordon, who fills the position for Vice President Harris this term. He has proven himself to be an expert on all matters of foreign policy, including Europe per The Nation. However, he has also advocated for a Europe and NATO that paves its way forward instead of relying on America, a sure contradiction to Harris’ ideas of continuing Biden’s legacy of transatlanticism.
Trump’s Return
With his polls dropping in the aftermath of Harris’ entry into the Presidential race, which was recorded in a YouGov survey, many European leaders breathed a sigh of relief. Changes to the transatlantic relationship did not change drastically in his tenure, in part due to the lack of
planning-wise alignment within his cabinet. However, his plans can be expected to be put into action now that he has garnered the support he requires, J.D. Vance, Stephen Miller, and Bill Hagerty among them. Having survived a shooting, he now finds himself in the middle of a policy scandal at Heritage Foundation’s “Project 2025”, which has been linked by several outlets including CNN to his campaign and party.
Trump and Europe
The election of Trump into office marked a damp period in the transatlantic relationship. Under him, the U.S. entered a period of isolationism, somewhat comparable to the America of the 30s, fortifying borders, imposing tariffs, and opposing military aid to Ukraine (but not Israel) among a flurry of other decisions and statements that can easily be presented as evidence for his isolationist, nationalist ideology. Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank, who has written a series of books about the history of U.S. foreign policy, said, “I do see many similarities between the
views and arguments of the Taft Republicans of the 1930s and the Trump Republicans today,” to NBC news.
Economists at Goldman Sachs said that re-election would “pose a significant downside risk” to the economy of the EU area. “Trade policy uncertainty, added defence and security pressures, and spillover effects from U.S. domestic policies on, for example, taxes could impact Europe,” they explained in a note that CNBC reported on.
There are expectations that Trump will lower, if not completely halt military aid to Ukraine. He has suggested stopping help in countries part of the NATO military alliance that do not meet the 2% defence requirement.
Tariffs on steel and aluminium for Europe in his previous term lowered by around 2% industrial production. The uncertainty and tensions in trade with the U.S. could also worsen the euro area GDP.
Stehn and Moberly said that “The net financial spillover, however, would likely be muted as we would expect the effect of higher long-term rates to be offset by a notably weaker euro, consistent with the post-election moves in November 2016,” in the same piece by CNBC, speaking of the effect of domestic policies on Europe.
Voting
Voting as an American in Europe, especially for those who intend to do so for a long time may seem confusing, with the question of “Do I have a say in what happens to a country I no longer live in?” coming up frequently. The answer happens to be yes, you have a say because what happens in a country, especially one like the U.S., influences the whole world.
Whilst Harris is something of a popular favourite in Europe, the argument that stands against Harris occupying office is one larger than the Republicans, it is the war in Gaza. As politicians so often do, the Democrats have masterfully skirted around the topic and the sheer possibility of an arms embargo. The more one seems to dig around the matter, the more evidence is found that the support of Gaza might not be real. An opinion piece by Maura Finkelstein for Al Jazeera explains this in detail.
However, people who don’t identify with either candidate seem keener on decreasing the probability of a Trump re-election than seeing Harris in office.
With many young people finding themselves old enough to vote, opinions are being tossed left and right, not just about the candidates but the system that gives them power. One such opinion is that of a young Swedish-American woman set to vote in November, “It’s a system which allows the current power to tailor the votes in their favor, redrawing the maps so that they can manipulate swing states to their sides. Moreover, it is a system which fails to represent the majority as it doesn’t reflect the population’s opinions as a whole but rather only each state’s general opinion due to an archaic notion of fairness which was only relevant during America’s foundation”.
Written by Harinishree Babu
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