Tensions between India and Pakistan are escalating once again after a gun attack on tourists in India left several dead. New Delhi blames Pakistan for the assault, though Islamabad has denied any connection. The response, while intense, follows a familiar pattern: calculated strikes and sharp rhetoric, but no full-scale war.
That’s largely due to the threat both countries carry in their arsenals: nuclear weapons.
A fragile peace held by nuclear deterrence
Since achieving independence from Britain in 1947, India and Pakistan have fought three wars and endured countless skirmishes, many centered on the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir. Despite ongoing hostility, they avoid major wars due to the presence of nuclear arms on both sides.
Each country is believed to attain between 170 and 180 nuclear warheads, according to estimates from the Federation of American Scientists. Though the exact capabilities remain undisclosed, both nations have built delivery systems capable of launching short-, medium- and long-range missiles.
“The idea is mutually assured destruction,” said Syed Mohammed Ali, a security analyst based in Islamabad. “Neither side can initiate a full-scale war without risking its own survival.”
That uncertainty, paired with the possibility of second-strike retaliation, keeps both countries from escalating their disputes into catastrophic war.
The Kashmir flashpoint
Kashmir remains the core of the conflict, as noted by the BBC. Both India and Pakistan claim the region in full but control different parts, divided by the heavily fortified Line of Control. The area has seen repeated militant attacks, armed uprisings, and retaliatory strikes.
In May, following a deadly massacre in Kashmir prompted by Pakistan, India launched strikes on what it described as militant bases backed by Pakistan. The cycle of accusation and retaliation is tragically familiar and dangerously unpredictable.
A stark military imbalance
While both nations maintain large standing armies, India’s military dwarfs Pakistan’s in spending and personnel. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, India spent $74.4 billion on defense in 2025, while Pakistan spent $10 billion.
India’s strategic concerns extend beyond Pakistan. China, another nuclear power, shares a contested border with India, pushing New Delhi to expand and modernize its military. Pakistan’s narrower focus and centralized military control make it more nimble within its own borders.
Still, Pakistan maintains enough firepower to keep India at bay, again, thanks in part to nuclear parity.
Pattern of provocation and restraint
Neither side publicly discloses its military moves immediately. Drone crashes, late-night strikes, and covert operations occur frequently but often remain unconfirmed. Much of the action takes place along the Line of Control, where independent reporting is rare and propaganda is common.
Such ambiguity increases the risk of miscalculation, especially as both governments face pressure from their domestic audiences to respond forcefully.
In Rawalpindi, Pakistan, soldiers closed off access to the Pindi Cricket Stadium after a suspected Indian drone crashed in the parking lot, one of several incidents in early May.
Not a war for conquest
India is not interested in Pakistan’s natural resources, and Pakistan does not seek to control India at it’s entirety.
Their disputes are nationalistic, historic, and deeply political. They rarely target major cities, and attacks are typically described as surgical or limited in scope.
Still, global concern rises each time violence escalates. With both countries holding nuclear weapons and sharing a bitter past, the international community watches warily, hoping their mutual restraint continues to outweigh their mutual resentment.
Written by Dhruva Ambati
