After $1 trillion and 20 gruelling years, the US “War on Terror” has left Afghanistan largely unchanged; an emboldened Taliban remain in power and the average Afghan faces an unpromising life marred with restrictions. So, how did it go so wrong, and what is life like in Afghanistan today?
Despite the exorbitant cost of the “War on Terror” and its largely unpopular opinion among the American people, Biden did what three presidents before him didn’t – or wouldn’t – do: remove America from a war in which it had nothing to gain. The actual evacuation was far from the safe, orderly exit strategy that Biden promised and it seems the odds were stacked against his claim that a Taliban takeover of the entire country was “highly unlikely”. In fact, troops had to be sent back to aid in the evacuation. The scenes that emerged throughout the evacuation were, without a doubt, the kind of nightmares that haunt any American President, and for that matter, the American people. To see Afghan civilians desperate to get out crowding the runways and clamouring onto US cargo planes was, frankly, a humiliation and has since stained Biden’s legacy. In spite of this, it must be said that he took a step that every previous administration knew had to be taken but was too scared to out of fear of being seen as weak and soft-handed.
Towards the end of the war, it was clear that a Taliban takeover was imminent and gaining momentum. Intelligence showed that Taliban forces had been making gains across Afghanistan in the year leading up to the withdrawal as US troop numbers subsided. Alongside this, the Taliban were building inroads across the nation with local governors and district chiefs for one to two years ahead of the withdrawal, in preparation to sweep across the country when the last US plane departed – which is exactly what they did.
Throughout the conflict, the US’s inability to understand Afghanis, who lived under the constant threat of war for half a century following a coup in 1973, the Soviet-Afghan war throughout the 1980s, Taliban rule in the 1990s and finally the 20-year US “War on Terror”, meant they did not recognize that the everyday Afghani could not fully trust or rely on an Afghan government without US backing. Moreover, whilst efforts to build the necessary framework for a functioning democratic state were of course with good intentions in mind, the US failed to identify that the Afghani’s point of view was simply through a lens of survival. Instead of thinking about whom their next leader would be, the average Afghan was thinking of where they would source their next meal and had much more pressing concerns than their country’s political future.
Another element that the US failed to account for was the massive security vacuum it left in Afghanistan after the evacuation – one that the US adversaries are now taking advantage of. Whilst no nation has officially recognized the Taliban as the legitimate government, some nations including Saudi Arabia, Turkey and India, have established diplomatic relations with the group. Last year, Beijing said that the the Taliban should not be “excluded from the international community” and reports suggest Moscow is considering removing the Taliban from its terror list – a strong indicator that opening up to the Taliban is in alignment with both countries’ strategic aims. In fact, China and Russia have been expanding their presence across the Middle East and South East Asia, exploiting the US’s waning influence as they distance themselves from the region and the various conflicts they are mired in. Moreover, China and Russia are behind a rise in anti-Western sentiment, having bolstered ties in the wake of Washington’s opposition to the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s increasingly aggressive stance to Taiwan and islands in the South China Sea. This has been exacerbated by the two countries drawing closer to firm opponents of the US such as the Taliban, Iran and North Korea.
Some countries have also begun exploring the prospect of expanding trade ties with Afghanistan to alleviate pressure from crippling Western sanctions. In early 2023, the Taliban government sold oil concessions to a Chinese oil company and announced its intent to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Yet, despite this, the Taliban have been unable to set Afghanistan’s economy back on track; Human Rights Watch reported that 14.7 million people depended on humanitarian aid for basic survival in 2023. The loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs after the US evacuation, the loss of most foreign aid and a prolonged drought were the primary culprits behind the collapse of the Afghan economy in late 2021. The result has been people resorting to subsistence farming and cultivating poppy flowers, a highly sought-after ingredient in the production of illicit opium. In addition, the UN reports that nowhere near enough aid is being sent to Afghanistan which it describes as “one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises”. In 2023, the UN requested $3.26 billion in humanitarian funding however it received less than a quarter of that. The Taliban’s restrictions on women’s rights are among the reasons behind the donor’s decisions to cut aid, though have meant that many aid programs have been forced to close.
Over the course of the Taliban’s resurgence to power, they have effectively swept away the notion of women’s rights. Most women who worked for the Western-backed Afghan government have been unable to resume their jobs and the Taliban has closed all beauty salons – leading to the loss of an estimated 60,000 jobs. Furthermore, women have been barred from working for the UN or other international NGOs and, in most Afghan provinces, are not allowed to travel or leave their houses without being accompanied by a male relative as a chaperone. Women are also required to wear a full hijab and have their faces covered in public. The erosion of basic women’s rights has sparked widespread concern and anger, leading to the EU, the US and various others issuing condemnations of the Taliban’s treatment of women. A UN special rapporteur who visited Afghanistan in May concluded that the Taliban system “constitutes gender persecution and an institutionalized framework of gender apartheid”. Separately, the Taliban has continued to use the death penalty, torture and public floggings as punishments for certain crimes, and has extended censorship of the media.
A key aim for the Taliban since their return to power three years ago has been strengthening their military. They currently host an army of roughly 180,000 personnel and have taken advantage of the billions of dollars of military equipment left in the country after foreign forces left. In addition to the significant quantities of military aid sent to Afghan forces during the Soviet-Afghan conflict, the US is reported to have left vast stockpiles of weapons and vehicles. Taliban military parades flaunting US weaponry show that they are in possession of hundreds of armoured Hum-Vs, UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters and other heavy weaponry. The Taliban are also attempting to build an airforce by repairing and salvaging damaged aircraft left in the country, and reports suggest that China has shown interest in selling drones to the Taliban.
In summary, over the three years since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the country has undergone profound changes, marked by the Taliban’s return to power and the departure of international forces. Afghanistan’s political, economic and social landscapes continue to face a host of challenges, with humanitarian crises, women’s rights and a dysfunctional economy at the forefront. While some semblance of stability has been achieved, uncertainty looms as the country grapples with internal and external pressures. Ultimately, the country’s future lies in its ability to rejuvenate the economy and restore face with the international community through fostering equality for all Afghanis.
Written by Rakan Pharaon
