As the world steps into the final quarter of 2024, a string of critical elections is set to reshape not just national governments but the global political framework as a whole. These elections will take place against the backdrop of economic struggles, increased geopolitical tensions, and a growing divide over action on climate-a series of issues poised to rewrite alliances, ideologies, and possibly even democracy itself. From the United States through Austria to Ghana, these coming votes will reflect changing priorities of populations and shifting dynamics of power.
United States: Democracy at the Crossroads
On November 5, 2024, all eyes will turn to the United States, where the presidential election will determine the trajectory of not just America but the entire global order. The stakes couldn’t be higher. Kamala Harris is standing for election in a climate of disillusionment over economic conditions, with many Americans feeling the pinch of inflation and not seeing their standards of living improve. Although the US economy has been quite resilient, it would seem that voters are more concerned with the daily struggles they have to put up with. Unfortunately for her, the Biden-Harris economic policies have not been as widely embraced as she might have wished for. Her most serious competitor, former US President Donald Trump, exudes his typical populism: an aggressive program of curbing immigration, withdrawing from international agreements such as NATO, and advocacy for a return to fossil fuels. Her policies appeal to poor voters who have been left behind through Globalization and climate policies, which Trump argues are bad for the American economy. But Trump’s refusal to commit to accepting the election results in case of defeat raises deep concerns about the resilience of American democracy itself. Political analysts have expressed apprehensions of post-election violence or a disputed outcome, either of which could have far-reaching implications for the country’s status as an international beacon of democratic values.
Austria: The Far-Right Surge
Austria held its general election on September 29, 2024, just a month before the U.S. election. What really sends this election into the stratosphere as one that is significant in the global context is the rise of the far-right Freedom Party, or FPO which gained a victory over its rivals. Like many of those far-right movements in Europe, the FPO is capitalizing on widespread dissatisfaction with immigration and economic stagnation. This Austria election reflects a wider trend across Europe, where nationalist parties steal votes on the promise of sorting out high living costs and unemployment. Far-right parties picked up strong gains in elections to the European Parliament just months ago, and countries like Portugal, saw parties like Chega quadrupling their representation in parliament. Now that the FPO gained power, Austria may retreat from European integration and enter into a pan-nationalist axis with governments in Hungary and Poland. That would be a blow to cohesion just at the moment when the EU needs it most as they’re facing global crises that include Ukraine and climate change.
Ghana: Economic Hardship in Forefront of Vote
As the year 2024 draws to a close, Ghanaians will go to the polls to elect a successor to President Nana Akufo-Addo in December. The election is expected to be dominated by issues of poverty and unemployment, which have worsened in recent years. The same challenges are being felt across most African countries; a resultant effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and increased global inflation. Save for a few regions that have registered remarkable economic growth, the benefits have not been equitably distributed; large swathes of the population are struggling to make ends meet because of unemployment and spiraling living costs.
In Ghana, the level of discontent with living standards is expected to be a determinant factor in the outcome of the election, with opposition parties promising reforms in the management of the economy and job creation. This election will also be a referendum on democracy in a region where the growing tendency toward authoritarianism and manipulation of elections have been a rising concern. The peaceful handover of power earlier this year in Senegal was one rare bright spot for West Africa, and many observers are hoping that Ghana will now follow suit to provide a model for the rest of the region where democracy is fragile.
Bangladesh and Azerbaijan: Autocracy and Electoral Fairness
While democratic elections are taking place in parts of Africa and the West, other regions face elections under significantly different conditions. In Bangladesh, a December 2024 election that has not taken place yet has already been questioned on grounds of being free and fair. The country under the leadership of its current Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, has grown increasingly repressive politically, and international observers are skeptical that the election will be free and fair. The ruling Awami League has been accused of weakening the democratic institutions, silencing opposition through persecution or arrest of opposition leaders, and using state machinery as an apparatus for sustaining its power. This election will put democracy in Bangladesh at further risk, with wider ramifications for South Asia, already stressed by political instability and a rise of authoritarianism in neighbors Myanmar and Pakistan.
Similarly, electoral fairness is also questioned in Azerbaijan. President Ilham Aliyev, who has been in office since 2003, is poised to further solidify his rule in the upcoming 2024 elections. The political climate in Azerbaijan reflects a greater challenge within Eastern Europe and Central Asia, where democratic processes have often been marred by autocratic leadership.
Global Implications: Fragmenting Global Order
Taken together, these elections underline a world at a crossroads facing deep economic, political, and environmental challenges. The resurgence of far-right and nationalist movements in Europe and the United States reflects an increasing backlash against globalization, immigration, and progressive policies. Added to this rising tide of authoritarianism in countries like Bangladesh and Azerbaijan, this portends a global retreat from democratic norms.
On the other hand, elections in countries such as Ghana give hope that democracy can still thrive in beleaguered regions. While global powers such as the U.S. and the EU are racked by internal divisions, countries from Africa and Southeast Asia may yet turn out to be significant voices on the international stage-if only their democratic processes are preserved.
These elections will not only set directions for individual nations but also mold the balance of power across the world. Whether the world lurches further toward polarization and instability, or finds new ways to co-operate in rising to shared challenges such as climate change, depends on the leaders that voters will select over the coming months.
Written by Sadhika Kari
